Predictive Analytics of Climate Trends
Main Article Content
Abstract
The accumulation of data in the weather observation will be continued steadily to infinity. To perform weather predictions, a huge amount of data needs to be processed and assimilated to create of acceptable models.
This paper presents a method of estimating a long term (more than 100 years) temperature and precipitation sets for predicting of a future trends. The method uses average solar cycle length as a uniform sampling basis for assessment of weather features. Long-term observation of climatic variables shows that in the theory of weather chaos exists a certain order. The order is expressed as a long-term increasing temperature trends and in rising of ocean levels. Here we demonstrate how the proposed approach can be highly effective in varied large-scale applications involving regional temperature trends in Caucasus region.
Article Details
References
Historical Instrumental Climatological Surface Time Series Of The Greater Alpine Region (HISTALP). Austrian weather service (ZAMG), 2013, http://www.zamg.ac.at/histalp/
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/download-data
Nurtaev B. Influence of climate variability on large rivers runoff. Proc. IAHS, 371, 2015, pp. 211–214,proc- iahs.net/371/211/2015/ doi:10.5194/piahs-371-211-2015.
Nurtaev B., Nurtaev L. Long Term Trends in Climate Variability of Caucasus Region. Journal of the Georgian Geophysical Society, Issue B. Physics of Atmosphere, Ocean and Space Plasma, v.19B, 2016, pp. 79-89.
Nurtaev B. Big data processing in hydrology. East European Sc. Journal, N6 (46), 2019, pp. 41-45.
Petit, J. R et al . Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica. Nature. 399 (6735), 1999, pp. 429–436.
Scheidel W., Morris I., Saller R.P. The Cambridge Economic History of the Greco-Roman World. Cambridge University Press; Reprint edition. 22 Nov., 2012, 960 p.
Taylor, F. W. Elementary Climate Physics. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005, p. 232.
WMO Guidelines on the Calculation of Climate Normal. WMO-No. 1203 © World Meteorological Organization, 2017.