Mesoscale convective complex genesis and forecast in Alagoas State of Brazil
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Abstract
Significant precipitation, thunderstorm, floods and other extreme weather events, which have caused problems in Alagoas State, were investigated. NCEP reanalysis data, HYSPLIT model trajectories, satellite images and adjacent Atlantic Ocean thermal conditions were used for the investigation. Wave Disturbance in the field of Trade Winds (WDTW) on the northwest periphery of subtropical High were associated with a different processes of clouds formation, which are possible to create both Cb and St-clouds. Periphery of the frontal zones rest were one of the causes of the WDTW formation far from other synoptic systems. The WDTW were associated with Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC). Very height air instability (CAPE=3936J/Kg and LI=-7) was typical for these events. Extreme events forecast were elaborated by instability indexes and a convective available potential energy (CAPE) calculated by forecasted vertical profiles using. These profiles were constructed by Air Parcels Trajectories of HYSPLIT model. The ocean surface heating near Alagoas and baric trough at low levels were associated with the thunderstorm development in some MCC events. In other MCC a very weak jet stream at high levels near Alagoas was identified as a principal process for ascendant motion formation. The 12h-24h antecedent forecasted vertical profiles were helped for extreme events forecast.
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