Intensification of a Tropical Cyclone During Landfall: A Critical Forecasting Challenge
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Abstract
Not very rare in reality, socially very dangerous rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclone (TC) during landfall remains actually an unpredictable phenomenon. Attempts to identify the presence of such a critical forecasting problem have so far been unsuccessful. In the work, the problem is again considered within the framework of the alternative so-called Equilibrium Translation Model (ETM). The basis for the consideration is TC Ian (2022), the unique parameters of which make it possible to refine and strengthen the previously obtained results. The new findings are further supported by analysis of the parameters of TC Charley (2004) who committed landfall in the same region. Potential of so-called Alignment number (An) is once again demonstrated to be an effective hazard identifier.
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References
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