Some Results of a Study of the Relationship Between the Mean Annual Sum of Atmospheric Precipitation and Re-Activated and New Landslide Cases in Georgia Taking into Account of Climate Change

Main Article Content

Avtandil G. Amiranashvili
Tamaz L. Chelidze
David T. Svanadze
Tamar N. Tsamalashvili
Genadi A. Tvauri


Some results of statistical analysis of long-term variations of annual amount of atmospheric precipitation for 21 meteorological stations of Georgia (P) located in areas with landslides, average annual amount of precipitation for these stations (Pₐ), relationship between the Pₐ and number of re-activated and new cases of landslides (LS), and the estimated values ​​of LS up to 2045 using predictive data on Pₐ are presented. Data from the Environmental Agency of Georgia on the P in period 1936 - 2020 and data on LS in period 1996 – 2018 are used.

The forecast of Pₐ using the AAA version of the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) algorithm was carried out.

In particular, the following results are obtained.

The correlations between the annual amounts of P at each of the meteorological stations with averaged data for all 21 stations Pₐ are established.

In 1981-2020, compared with 1936-1975, no significant variability of the mean P values is observed at 11 stations, an increase - at 6 stations, and a decrease - at 4 stations. The Pₐ value do not change during the indicated time periods.

The forecast of the Pₐ value up to 2040 were estimated taking into account the periodicity of precipitation variability, which is 11 years.

A cross-correlation analysis of the time series of the Pₐ and LS values ​​ showed that the best correlation between the indicated parameters is observed with a five-year advance of precipitation data. With this in mind, a linear regression equation was obtained between the five-year moving average of the Pₐ and the five-year moving average of the LS values.

Using this equation and predictive Pₐ data, five-year moving averages of re-activated and new landslides cases up to 2045 were estimated.

atmospheric precipitation, landslides, climate change.
Published: Dec 13, 2022

Article Details

How to Cite
Amiranashvili, A. G. ., Chelidze, T. L. ., Svanadze, D. T. ., Tsamalashvili, T. N. ., & Tvauri, G. A. . (2022). Some Results of a Study of the Relationship Between the Mean Annual Sum of Atmospheric Precipitation and Re-Activated and New Landslide Cases in Georgia Taking into Account of Climate Change. Journals of Georgian Geophysical Society, 25(2).


Aleotti P., Chowdhury R. Landslide hazard assessment: summary. Rev N Perspect. Bull Eng. Geol. Env. 58, 1999, pp. 21–44.

Froude M, Petley D. Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2018, pp. 2161–2181.

Bondyrev I.V., Tsereteli E.D., Ali Uzun, Zaalishvili V.B. Landslides of the Southern Caucasus. Geologiya i geofizika Yuga Rossii, № 4, tom 2, 2014, s. 105-123, (in Russian).

Varazanashvili O., Tsereteli N., Amiranashvili A., Tsereteli E., Elizbarashvili E., Dolidze J., Qaldani L., Saluqvadze M., Adamia Sh., Arevadze N., Gventcadze A. Vulnerability, Hazards and Multiple Risk Assessment for Georgia. Natural Hazards, Vol. 64, Number 3, 2012, pp. 2021-2056. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0374-3,

Gaprindashvili G., Cees J. Van Westen. Generation of a national landslide hazard and risk map for the country of Georgia. Natural hazards, vol.80, N 1, 2016, pp. 69-101.

Gaprindashvili G., Tsereteli E., Gaprindashvili M. Landslide hazard assessment methodology in Georgia. Special Issue: XVI DECGE Proceedings of the 16th Danube ‐ European Conference on Geotechnical Engineering, 2018, vol. 2, N 2-3, pp. 217-222.

Gaprindashvili M., Tsereteli E., Gaprindashvili G., Kurtsikidze O. Landslide and Mudflow Hazard Assessment in Georgia. In: Bonali, F.L., Pasquaré Mariotto, F., Tsereteli, N. (eds) Building Knowledge for Geohazard Assessment and Management in the Caucasus and other Orogenic Regions. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht, 2021,

Tsereteli E., Gaprindashvili G., Gaprindashvili M. Natural Disasters (Mudflow, Landslide, Etc.). In: Bolashvili, N., Neidze, V. (eds) The Physical Geography of Georgia. Geography of the Physical Environment. Springer, Cham., 2022

Chelidze T., Varamashvili N., Chelidze Z., Kiria T., Ghlonti N., Kiria J., Tsamalashvili T. Cost-effective telemetric monitoring and early warning systems for signaling landslide initiation. Monograph, M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, TSU, Tbilisi, 2018,127 p., (in Georgian).

Stankevich S.A., Titarenko O.V, Svideniuk M.O. Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS-based weight-of-evidence modelling in central Georgian regions. International Scientific Conference „Natural Disasters in Georgia: Monitoring, Prevention, Mitigation“, Proceedings, Tbilisi, Georgia, December 12-14, 2019, pp. 187-190.

Segoni S., Piciullo L., Gariano S.L. A review of the recent literature on rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence. Landslides, 15, 2018, pp. 1483–1501, DOI 10.1007/s10346-018-0966-4.

Kirschbaum D., Stanley T. Satellite-Based Assessment of Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Hazard for Situational Awareness. Earth’s Future, 6, 2018, pp.505-523, https://, 2017EF000715

Amiranashvili A., Chelidze T., Dalakishvili L., Svanadze D., Tsamalashvili T., Tvauri G. Preliminary Results of a Study of the Relationship Between the Variability of the Mean Annual Sum of Atmospheric Precipitation and Landslide Processes in Georgia. Int. Sc. Conf. „Modern Problems of Ecology“, Proc., ISSN 1512-1976, v. 7, Tbilisi-Telavi, Georgia, 26-28 September, 2020, pp. 202-206.

Amiranashvili A., Chelidze T., Dalakishvili L., Svanadze D., Tsamalashvili T., Tvauri G. Preliminary Results of a Study of the Relationship Between the Monthly Mean Sum of Atmospheric Precipitation and Landslide Cases in Georgia. Journal of the Georgian Geophysical Society, ISSN: 1512-1127, Physics of Solid Earth, Atmosphere, Ocean and Space Plasma, v. 23(2), 2020, pp. 37 – 41. DOI:

Fourth National Communication of Georgia Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Chapter 4.9 Geological Hazards in Georgia, Tbilisi, 2021, pp. 278-286.

Box G.E.P, Jenkins G.M., Reinsel G.C. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting & Control (3rd Edition). ISBN10: 0130607746, ISBN13: 9780130607744. Prentice Hall, 1994, 592 p.

Amiranashvili A., Chelidze T., Svanadze D., Tsamalashvili T., Tvauri G. On the Representativeness of Data from Meteorological Stations in Georgia for Annual and Semi-Annual Sum of Atmospheric Precipitation Around of These Stations. International Scientific Conference „Natural Disasters in the 21st Century: Monitoring, Prevention, Mitigation“. Proceedings, ISBN 978-9941-491-52-8, Tbilisi, Georgia, December 20-22, 2021. Publish House of Iv. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, 2021, pp. 79 - 83.