Preliminary Results of a Study on the Impact of Some Simple Thermal Indices on the Spread of COVID-19 in Tbilisi
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The results of a study of the influence of diurnal values of separate components of simple thermal indices (temperature and air relative humidity, wind speed) on the infection positivity rate with coronavirus COVID-19 (IR) of the population of Tbilisi from September 1, 2020 to May 31, 2021 are presented. It was found that IR values are inversely correlated with air temperature and wind speed, and positively correlated with air relative humidity.
The effect of four different thermal indices (air effective temperature and Wet-Bulb-Globe-Temperature) on the IR values averaged over the scale ranges of their categories was studied. It has been found that an increase of the air effective temperature leads to a decrease of the IR values. In the latter case, the level of significance of the relationship between thermal indices and IR values is much higher than in the case of the relationship between IR and separate components of these indices.
Article Details
References
World Health Organization. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Situation report. 67, 2020.
Covid-19 Georgia. COVID-19 Report of the National Center for Disease Control &Public Health, 2020-2022. The 9th Revision. 163 p., 2022, (in Georgian). http://test.ncdc.ge/Handlers/GetFile.ashx?ID=c6c26041-e123-4591-b1c6-50103eb5205f
Amiranashvili A.G, Khazaradze K.R, Japaridze N.D. Twenty weeks of the pandemic of coronavirus Covid-19 in Georgia and neighboring countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Russia). Preliminary comparative statistical data analysis. Int. Sc. Conf. „Modern Problems of Ecology“, Proc., ISSN 1512-1976, v. 7, Tbilisi-Telavi, Georgia, 26-28 September, 2020, pp. 364-370.
Amiranashvili A.G., Khazaradze K.R., Japaridze N.D. Analysis of twenty-week time-series of confirmed cases of New Coronavirus COVID-19 and their simple short-term prediction for Georgia and neighboring countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Russia) in amid of a global pandemic. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.09.20191494, 2020, 13 p. Europe PMC, https://europepmc.org/article/ppr/ppr213467
Amiranashvili A.G., Khazaradze K.R., Japaridze N.D. The Statistical Analysis of Daily Data Associated with Different Parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic in Georgia and their Short-Term Interval Prediction from September 2020 to February 2021. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.01.21254448, 2021, 18 p.
Amiranashvili A.G., Khazaradze K.R., Japaridze N.D. The Statistical Analysis of Daily Data Associated with Different Parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic in Georgia and their Short-Term Interval Prediction in Spring 2021. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.16.21259038, 2021.
Amiranashvili A.G., Khazaradze K.R., Japaridze N.D. The Statistical Analysis of Daily Data Associated with Different Parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic in Georgia and their Two-Week Interval Prediction in Summer 2021. medRxiv preprint, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.08.21263265, 2021, 20 p.
Amiranashvili A., Khazaradze K., Japaridze N., Revishvili A. Analysis of the Short-Term Forecast of Covid-19 Related Confirmed Cases, Deaths Cases and Infection Rates in Georgia from September 2020 to October 2021. InternationalScientificConference „Natural Disasters in the 21st Century: Monitoring, Prevention, Mitigation“. Proceedings, ISBN 978-9941-491-52-8, Tbilisi, Georgia, December 20-22, 2021. Publish House of Iv. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, 2021, pp. 167 - 171.
Amiranashvili A.G., Khazaradze K.R., Japaridze N.D. The Statistical Analysis of Daily Data Associated with Different Parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic in Georgia and their Monthly Interval Prediction from September 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. 22 p. Europe PMC plus. Preprint from medRxiv, 16 Jan 2022, DOI: 10.1101/2022.01.16.22269373, PPR: PPR443384
Amiranashvili A.G., Khazaradze K.R., Japaridze N.D. The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their monthly interval prediction from January 1, 2022 to March 31, 2022. 20 p. Preprint from medRxiv, 21Apr 2022, medRxiv 2022.04.19.22274044; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.04.19.22274044
Fatimah B., Aggarwal P., Singh P. Gupta A. (2022). A Comparative Study for Predictive Monitoring of COVID-19 Pandemic. Applied Soft Computing. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2022.108806, 2022, 43 p.
Kathleen C. M. de Carvalho, João Paulo Vicente, João Paulo Teixeira. COVID-19 Time Series Forecasting – Twenty Days Ahead. Procedia Computer Science, 196, 2022, pp. 1021–1027, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
Martin Drews, Pavan Kumar, Ram Kumar Singh, Manuel De La Sen, Sati Shankar Singh, Ajai Kumar Pandey, Manoj Kumar, Meenu Rani, Prashant Kumar Srivastava. Model-Based Ensembles: Lessons Learned from Retrospective Analysis of COVID-19 Infection Forecasts Across 10 Countries. Science of the Total Environment, 806, 150639, 2022, 10 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150639
Amiranashvili A.G., Khazaradze K.R., Japaridze N.D. Comparative Analysis of Reported Deaths Cases Associated with the New Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic in the South Caucasus Countries (Armenia,Azerbaijan, Georgia) from March 2020 to May 2022. medRxiv 2022.04.19.22274044; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.04.19.22274044
Sahin M. Impact of weather on COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey. Sci. Total Environ 728:138810, 2020.
Nottmeyer L.N., Sera F. Influence of temperature, and of relative and absolute humidity on COVID-19 incidence in England - A multi-city time-series study. Environ. Res. 196: 110977, 2021
Islam A. The Effect of Weather Pattern on the Second Wave of Coronavirus: A cross study between cold and tropical climates of France, Italy, Colombia, and Brazil. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.28.21268496, 2021
Wang J., Tang K., Feng K., Lin X., Lv W., et al. Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States. BMJ, 11(2): e043863, 2021.
Ceylan Z. Insights into the relationship between weather parameters and COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy. International Journal of Healthcare Management. 14(1), 2021, pp. 255-263.
Abdullrahman M. The effect of meteorological conditions on the spread of COVID-19 cases in six major cities in Saudi Arabia. J. Comm. Med. and Pub. Health. Rep., ISSN: 2692-9899, 3(01), 2022, 6 p. https://doi.org/10.38207/JCMPHR/2022/FEB/03010410
Haga L., Ruuhela R., Auranen K., Lakkala K., Heikkilä A., Gregow H. Impact of Selected Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Incidence in Southern Finland during 2020–2021. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health. 19, 13398, 2022. https:// doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192013398
Landsberg H.E. The Assessment of Human Bioclimate. A Limited Review of Physical Parameters. Technical Note No 123, WMO, No 331, 1972, 37 p.
BSR/ASHRAE Standard 55P, Thermal Environmental Conditions for Human Occupancy 2/24/03 Most Current Draft Standard, 2003, 50 p.
Tkachuk S.V. Comparative Analysis of Bioclimatic Indexes for Prediction Using a Mesoscale Model. Uchenie Zapiski Rossiiskogo Gosudarstvennogo Gidrometeorologicheskogo Universiteta, No 20, 2011, pp. 109-118, (in Russian), http://weatherlab.ru/sites/default/files/library/Sravn_ind.pdf
Freitas C. R., Grigorieva E. A. A Comprehensive Catalogue and Classification of Human Thermal Climate Indices. Int J Biometeorol , 59, 2015, pp. 109–120, DOI 10.1007/s00484-014-0819-3
Amiranashvili A.G., Japaridze N.D., Khazaradze K.R. On the Connection of Monthly Mean of Some Simple Thermal Indices and Tourism Climate Index with the Mortality of the Population of Tbilisi City Apropos of Cardiovascular Diseases. Journal of the Georgian Geophysical Society, ISSN: 1512-1127, Physics of Solid Earth, Atmosphere, Ocean and Space Plasma, v. 21(1), Tbilisi, 2018, pp .48 -62. http://www.jl.tsu.ge/index.php/GGS/article/view/2489
Amiranashvili A., Danelia R., Mirianashvli K., Nodia A., Khazaradze K.,Khurodze T., Chikhladze V. On the Applicability of the Scale of Air Equivalent-Effective Temperature in the Conditions of Tbilisi City.Trans. of M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, v. LXII, ISSN 1512-1135, Tbilisi, 2010, pp. 216-220, (in Russian).
Sheleykhovski G.V. Mikroklimat yuzhnykh gorodov, M., 1948, 118 s.
Houghton F.C., Yagloglou C.P. Determination of the Comfort Zone. ASHVE, Transactions, 29, 1923, 361.
Missenard F.A. Température effective d’une Atmosphere Généralisation Températurerés ultante d’un Milieu. Encyclopédie in dustrielleet Commerciale, Etude physiologique et technique de la ventilation. Librerie de l’Enseignement Technique, Paris, 1933, 131-18.
Houghton F.C., Vagloglou C.P. Determining Lines of Equal Comfort. J. Amer. Soc. Heat. And Ventilating Engineers, Vol. 29, 1923, pp. 165-176.
Missenard A. L’ Homme et le Climat, Paris, 1937, 186 p.
Auer I., Bogner M., Hammer N., Koch E., Rudel E., Svabik O., Vielhaber C.H. Das Bioklima von Gmunden, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik Wie, 1990.
Yaglou C.P., Minard D. Control of Heat Casualties at Military Training Centers. Am MED Assoc Arch IND Health, 1957, 16:302–316.