Agroclimatic Challenges in the Mountainous and High-Mountain Areas of Georgia under Climate Change (on the Example of Mtskheta-Mtianeti and Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti)
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Abstract
Based on the 70-year-long meteorological observations (in 1948-2017) carried out in the areas of the mountainous and high-mountainous areas of Mtskheta-Mtianeti in east Georgia and Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti in west Georgia, a trend of changing the agroclimatic features (sum of active temperatures (>10ºC) and atmospheric precipitations (mm)), rise/decline in particular, has been identified under the impact of global warming (as per the designed scenario, at 1ºC and 2ºC increase in temperature). Under the same scenario, the trends of decreasing atmospheric precipitations and hydrothermal coefficients are also seen. Such a decrease results in more frequent drought. As the equations drafted by considering the above-said future (2020-2050) scenarios (1ºC and 2ºC temperature increase), the sums of active temperatures (>10ºC) and agroclimatic zones with the prospect to grow relevant crops were identified.
As per the scenarios developed for global warming, the temperature increase will not have any significant negative impact on the agricultural crops provided it is not higher than the increase forecasted by the scenario. On the contrary, it may be beneficial to grow the agricultural crops at different altitudes from the sea level, by considering vertical zoning, where the 1ºC temperature increase will make it possible to grow the agricultural crops 100-200 m higher and 200-300 m higher with the 2ºC temperature increase as compared to the present zones. However, proper agrotechnical measures against the negative processes caused by the decreased atmospheric precipitations must be developed.
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References
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