Variability in the Number of Days with Hail in the Warm Half of the Year in Bolnisi and Tsalka in 1941-2021 and their Expected Change until 2045
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Abstract
The paper presents the results of a study of the features of variations in the number of days with hail in the warm half of the year (HD) in Bolnisi and Tsalka in 1941-2021 and their expected change until 2045. The stability of time series of the number of days with hail at the indicated points was studied by determining the HD correlations with time (linear correlation, Kendall's and Spearmen's rank correlation). The level of autocorrelation in HD time series in Bolnisi and Tsalka was determined. The periodicity of these time series has been studied. Interval forecasting of the number of days with hail in Bolnisi and Tsalka until 2045 was carried out, taking into account the periodicity in the HD time series.
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