Retrospective Analysis of Landslides Processes in Akhaldaba (A Suburb of Tbilisi, Georgia) on June 13-14, 2015

Abstract

The article presents the results of an analysis of radar measurements of precipitation intensity preceding a series of small landslides in the Akhaldaba region (a suburb of Tbilisi, Georgia) on June 13-14, 2015. Specifically, the following results were obtained. The time course of the cumulative precipitation in the zone of maximum cloud radar reflectivity from 20:49 hour to 23:58 hour on June 13, 2015, has the form of a fifth-degree polynomial. The cumulative precipitation by 23:58 hour was 402.8 mm. The time course of the cumulative number of small landslides from 22:30 hour on June 13, 2015, to 01:00 hour on June 14, 2015, has the form of a third-degree polynomial. The number of landslides by 01:00 hour was 98.

The dependence of the cumulative landslide sum on the cumulative precipitation with a one-hour lead time is obtained, which has the form of a third-degree polynomial. A rapid increase in the number of landslides is observed with increasing accumulated precipitation (with a one-hour lead time).

This study once again demonstrates that radar measurements of precipitation intensity can be an effective tool for studying the role of precipitation in landslide occurrence, as well as for short-term forecasting of their activation, especially in areas where ground-based precipitation measurements are unavailable.